Why are my news sites claiming 538 is estimating a trump victory, while when I load the 2016 election forecast, I see a Clinton win?
This isn't a politics post. Its a news post. I do not understand why I am seeing such differences.
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Because news likes sound bites, and Silver wrote this his article:
ReplyDelete"But one method to measure the convention bounce is to look at FiveThirtyEight’s now-cast, our estimate of what would happen in an election held today. We don’t usually spend a lot of time writing about the now-cast because — uhh, breaking news — the election is scheduled for Nov. 8. The now-cast is super aggressive, and can overreact to small swings in the polls. But it’s useful if we want to get a snapshot of what the election looks like right now. It suggests that in an election held today, Trump would be a narrow favorite, with a 57 percent chance of winning the Electoral College."
He also wrote this in the same article, but it's not as snappy a news blurb.
"On the one hand, the conventions are not a particularly good time to sweat every tick in the polls. Instead, they tend to be one of the less accurate times for polling. Historically, it’s unusual for candidates not to at least pull into a rough tie after their party convention — John McCain and Sarah Palin did so in 2008, for example, and even Walter Mondale led a couple of polls in 1984. But those bounces do not always turn out to be predictive."
OHHH, the now cast. I see. Yeah, don't rely on the now cast. That's ridiculous!
ReplyDeleteThanks, Matt Johnson
Yeah, the now-cast makes for better headlines.
ReplyDelete