This is a very similar type of sampling problem to asking those in a popular how many siblings they have and trying to determine average family size.
If you do it wrong -- as this does -- then you wind up with much larger average family sizes then is real.
Originally shared by Andreas Schou
Oh. Delightful. It turns out we used cohort samples to determine the recidivism rate. Which means that we're overestimating the rate of recidivism by a tremendous amount. Why is this bad? I guess I'll quote myself, from two days ago:
Let's say that you live in a society with two possible crimes: one with a year-long sentence, and one with a twenty-year sentence. Of criminals in your society, 95% are convicted of the crime with a year-long sentence, and 5% are convicted of the crime with a twenty-year sentence.
So, to determine what people in your society are incarcerated for, you dip into the prison population at a single point and see what people have been convicted of. You'll find that your prison population is divided straight down the middle: 50% of the population consists of people who committed the one-year crime, and 50% consists of people who committed the twenty-year crime.
This happens because the distribution of prisoners currently incarcerated is controlled by two factors: the base rate of crime in the underlying society, and the duration of prisoners' sentences. Each twenty-year inmate will appear in 20 different yearly samples. Each one-year inmate will only appear in the sample from the year he's incarcerated.
For similar reasons, prisoners with multiple nonconsecutive incarcerations in the study period will be vastly overrepresented in the population. Which means that, by studying people who are in prison at any single point in time, we're getting a view not of the typical person who has been in prison, but the person who is most likely to be in prison.
It's hard to overstate how awful this is: we've been making public policy based on studies like this for a very, very long time.
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/crime/2015/10/why_do_so_many_prisoners_end_up_back_in_prison_a_new_study_says_maybe_they.html
Friday, October 30, 2015
Wednesday, October 28, 2015
Last night on ... WORLDS IN PERIL ...
Last night on ... WORLDS IN PERIL ...
Tagging in Robert Bohl to talk about prep in AW games.
Our protagonists, the Catalysts ... are changing the world.
Last week: They built a moon base. That is, the scientist of the group used the create move to build a moon base. They have matter teleportation, which made it a lot easier: they needed either to harness and destroy the AI they had, or to build a next generation space suit. ("Yeah, no problem, but ... "). They decided to build it using next-gen space suits, so found scientists to help.
That is, most of last session was spent at Carnegie Mellon University recruiting a post doc in robotics to work for them.
This week: They got a message from the UN, as building a base on the moon makes them pirates. On the moon.
They met with Neil Degras Tyson, a UN subcommitte chaired by a racist Aussie, and -- later that day -- Obama. They offered everyone the same thing: unlimited food. And they'd like to be recognized as a sovereign country. On the moon.
Our most common move is Fit-in -- and yet, the players have so few bonds. There was also a take-down against The Corrupt Status Quo -- my PCs are fighting the change the world, and are fighting against monied interests.
So, Robert Bohl -- prep? Two months ago, I figured out some fronts. That is, when i had high energy, I thought about direction and what would happen if the PCs do nothing. Some of that has changed, but its mostly the same. I've created a front or two in the last few months, but mostly this game runs on improv and no prep.
Ask questions, and I'll try to answer them. And maybe someone will come along and tell me I'm doing it wrong. And maybe I am. :-)
Tagging in Robert Bohl to talk about prep in AW games.
Our protagonists, the Catalysts ... are changing the world.
Last week: They built a moon base. That is, the scientist of the group used the create move to build a moon base. They have matter teleportation, which made it a lot easier: they needed either to harness and destroy the AI they had, or to build a next generation space suit. ("Yeah, no problem, but ... "). They decided to build it using next-gen space suits, so found scientists to help.
That is, most of last session was spent at Carnegie Mellon University recruiting a post doc in robotics to work for them.
This week: They got a message from the UN, as building a base on the moon makes them pirates. On the moon.
They met with Neil Degras Tyson, a UN subcommitte chaired by a racist Aussie, and -- later that day -- Obama. They offered everyone the same thing: unlimited food. And they'd like to be recognized as a sovereign country. On the moon.
Our most common move is Fit-in -- and yet, the players have so few bonds. There was also a take-down against The Corrupt Status Quo -- my PCs are fighting the change the world, and are fighting against monied interests.
So, Robert Bohl -- prep? Two months ago, I figured out some fronts. That is, when i had high energy, I thought about direction and what would happen if the PCs do nothing. Some of that has changed, but its mostly the same. I've created a front or two in the last few months, but mostly this game runs on improv and no prep.
Ask questions, and I'll try to answer them. And maybe someone will come along and tell me I'm doing it wrong. And maybe I am. :-)
Monday, October 26, 2015
I'm reading Ancillary Justice, which is remarkably good.
I'm reading Ancillary Justice, which is remarkably good.
One nitpick: there are two characters whose names have the same starting and ending character. That is, they both start with "s" and end with "n".
Don't do that.
One nitpick: there are two characters whose names have the same starting and ending character. That is, they both start with "s" and end with "n".
Don't do that.
Sunday, October 25, 2015
Dear lazy webs
Dear lazy webs,
I need help thinking up a name of a playbook.
Its like the Maestro D', but in space. It could be Inara (firefly) or Quark (DS9). I want something broad enough to grab both those, and evocative enough to be interesting.
Tavener?
Steward?
Victualer?
Right now, I'm leaning towards Victualer. And I'm open to other ideas.
I need help thinking up a name of a playbook.
Its like the Maestro D', but in space. It could be Inara (firefly) or Quark (DS9). I want something broad enough to grab both those, and evocative enough to be interesting.
Tavener?
Steward?
Victualer?
Right now, I'm leaning towards Victualer. And I'm open to other ideas.
Thursday, October 22, 2015
Tonight on World Wide Wrestling ....
Tonight on World Wide Wrestling ....
we introduced one new character: The Ravager, and anti-hero heel. The last match sent us INTO SPACE.
This is my ongoing WWW game, which is the Intercontinental International Wrestling Confederation of the World, the moon, and sometimes the oceans.
On today's docket:
Muerte Cabellero, the high flyer from parts unknown who once interrupted a title fight on an oil derrick by being torpedoed from a submarine -- along with his ninja fans.
Outback Jack, who is awesome and from Australia.
"Claymore" McDuff, now a Legend and MP from Scotland, who -- while retired -- worked on the movement to leave the UK.
Segments:
Muerte Cabellero vs Claymore -- this went off the rails in the most delightful way. The fight was in Red Square, and Muerte came out as a communist -- including using a tank. As such, Claymore had to rebut -- with an RPG.
Then they started wresling, and as Muerte botched on a wrestling move, she killed the actual announcer. Despite that Muerte was scheduled to win, Claymore arrested her and we called it a DQ.
Second: Muerte and Outback Jack "backstage" -- IN PRISON. Outback says he'll get Muerte out, but is rebuffed. Muerte is enjoying being a celebrity in prison.
Third: Mangler versus Outbackjack. They have a good knife match. Outback is hit in the kidneys -- which are important because he's Australian! --- and knocked out of the ring for a DQ. A perfect match by the Mangler.
Fourth: Talk show with Claymore & Outback. Claymore -- doing as creative wishes -- convinced Outback to turn to babyface.
... Which brings us to the main attraction: a Fatal Fourway. For an additional $5.99, HEELS vs BABYFACES.
That is: The heels Muerte The Communist and Mangler the Knifeassasin fight against babtfaces Claymore the paragon of democracy and Outback, the paragon of rugged individualism.
They do this on top of a launch pad. Because why wouldn't you?
As Mangler comes out, knives a raring for Outback, she misses ....
We cut to Claymore, who has cut threw a door and pressed a big red button. The launch pad opens to reveal a rocket, about to blast off.
Mangler uses her knives to cut it open -- its a herculean task. She manages, but it is obvious to the audience how hard it was. They begin to question kayfabe. Oh no!
Babyface Mcduff takes out the Mangler, hoistering her by her own petard.
In an act of desperation, Muerte invades the control room, revealing a larger, even redder button. She quickly presses it, and the entire facility begins to blast off.
Together, baby faces Outback and Mcduff manage to force Muerte out the airlock. She'll be back!
... and folks, that's wrestling for the night. We're now the intercontinental wrestling confederation of the earth, the ocean, and low earth orbit. That's right, baby: we made orbit.
This game went off the rails really early. I've very proud of the ridiculousness.
we introduced one new character: The Ravager, and anti-hero heel. The last match sent us INTO SPACE.
This is my ongoing WWW game, which is the Intercontinental International Wrestling Confederation of the World, the moon, and sometimes the oceans.
On today's docket:
Muerte Cabellero, the high flyer from parts unknown who once interrupted a title fight on an oil derrick by being torpedoed from a submarine -- along with his ninja fans.
Outback Jack, who is awesome and from Australia.
"Claymore" McDuff, now a Legend and MP from Scotland, who -- while retired -- worked on the movement to leave the UK.
Segments:
Muerte Cabellero vs Claymore -- this went off the rails in the most delightful way. The fight was in Red Square, and Muerte came out as a communist -- including using a tank. As such, Claymore had to rebut -- with an RPG.
Then they started wresling, and as Muerte botched on a wrestling move, she killed the actual announcer. Despite that Muerte was scheduled to win, Claymore arrested her and we called it a DQ.
Second: Muerte and Outback Jack "backstage" -- IN PRISON. Outback says he'll get Muerte out, but is rebuffed. Muerte is enjoying being a celebrity in prison.
Third: Mangler versus Outbackjack. They have a good knife match. Outback is hit in the kidneys -- which are important because he's Australian! --- and knocked out of the ring for a DQ. A perfect match by the Mangler.
Fourth: Talk show with Claymore & Outback. Claymore -- doing as creative wishes -- convinced Outback to turn to babyface.
... Which brings us to the main attraction: a Fatal Fourway. For an additional $5.99, HEELS vs BABYFACES.
That is: The heels Muerte The Communist and Mangler the Knifeassasin fight against babtfaces Claymore the paragon of democracy and Outback, the paragon of rugged individualism.
They do this on top of a launch pad. Because why wouldn't you?
As Mangler comes out, knives a raring for Outback, she misses ....
We cut to Claymore, who has cut threw a door and pressed a big red button. The launch pad opens to reveal a rocket, about to blast off.
Mangler uses her knives to cut it open -- its a herculean task. She manages, but it is obvious to the audience how hard it was. They begin to question kayfabe. Oh no!
Babyface Mcduff takes out the Mangler, hoistering her by her own petard.
In an act of desperation, Muerte invades the control room, revealing a larger, even redder button. She quickly presses it, and the entire facility begins to blast off.
Together, baby faces Outback and Mcduff manage to force Muerte out the airlock. She'll be back!
... and folks, that's wrestling for the night. We're now the intercontinental wrestling confederation of the earth, the ocean, and low earth orbit. That's right, baby: we made orbit.
This game went off the rails really early. I've very proud of the ridiculousness.
Wednesday, October 21, 2015
Oh no: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z-NEZC2uH-Q
Oh no: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z-NEZC2uH-Q
Marty McFly changed history, right? He invented Rock and Roll, and got the mayor to run for mayor, right?
That is -- in 1955 --- a white kid invented rock and roll and started the civil rights movement.
Oh no.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z-NEZC2uH-Q
Marty McFly changed history, right? He invented Rock and Roll, and got the mayor to run for mayor, right?
That is -- in 1955 --- a white kid invented rock and roll and started the civil rights movement.
Oh no.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z-NEZC2uH-Q
No one has mentioned this -- but I am pretty sure I saw Wedge Antilles in the trailer.
No one has mentioned this -- but I am pretty sure I saw Wedge Antilles in the trailer.
That is -- the true hero of the rebellion is still alive!
That is -- the true hero of the rebellion is still alive!
I just actually, serious said: I'm hungry, so I'll go running.
I just actually, serious said: I'm hungry, so I'll go running.
What am I?
What am I?
"Get off my plane"
"Get off my plane"
Originally shared by Christopher Ruthenbeck
I heard this in Han's voice. #justSaying
Capitalism is great, not so much corporatism.
Capitalism is great, not so much corporatism.
Competition is great, hierarchies not so much.
These are things I think may be true.
Competition is great, hierarchies not so much.
These are things I think may be true.
Monday, October 19, 2015
Doctor Who: Season 8: Episode 12.
Doctor Who: Season 8: Episode 12.
--- spoilers-
Doctor: She has been recruiting the dead for a long time.
Unit Chief: How long? How LONG, doctor?
Doctor: How long has the human race had the concept of an afterlife?
--- spoilers
Doctor: She has been recruiting the dead for a long time.
Unit Chief: How long? How LONG, doctor?
Doctor: How long has the human race had the concept of an afterlife?
bored:
bored:
tell me what fictional character reminds you of me.
you don't need to say why.
(also feel free to do this on your own feeds.)
tell me what fictional character reminds you of me.
you don't need to say why.
(also feel free to do this on your own feeds.)
Sunday, October 18, 2015
Played Uncharted Worlds -- the PbtA hack to do space opera -- on Thursday night.
Played Uncharted Worlds -- the PbtA hack to do space opera -- on Thursday night. Thursday nights are an open gaming night, at a gaming store. There's a crowd of regulars, and we get new people, too.
I managed to have fun on Thursday, but there were challenges. I've spent some time trying to figure out what parts of that were caused by a Problem Player, and which parts may've been the system.
Without further weasel words, here's my thoughts:
-- The origin + 2 career + equipment + workspace takes too damn long. Chargen is part of the game, so is done in person. I've done some lonely fun building putting together playbooks for this game since Thursday, and wouldn't ever want to do this at the table.
-- The game suffers from a lack of Hx/strings/SOMETHING that binds the characters together.
-- While a space opera hack, there's no obvious support for magical characters: second foundationers, jedis, even Troi and Spock!
-- I really like that the table decides what size ship to have.
-- Given that I want fewer, and more meaningful, decisions during chargen, I'd probably be happier with Star Wars World. Add a playbook or two to cover magic types who aren't space wizards, maybe another type of shipboard officer, and we could be in business.
-- Playbooks would also have made it easier for us to know what was up with the problem player: he wanted to be an asskicker, and that wasn't apparent to us until he flame throwered a prisoner. In SWW, he could have picked up the Trooper and it would be clear what he wants. In Dungeon World, the fighter. In Apocalypse World, the gunlugger.
-- We spent an hour and a half on chargen -- of our 3 hour game time -- and weren't finished. We didn't get to Factions basically at all.
Basically, all other children of the apocalypse have virtues that I'm not seeing here. I think the attempt to be broad in scope is a noble one, but this isn't the game for me.
And, let me be clear, this may be the game for you. Its a bit more complicated than most PbtA, and while for me that's a bug, for you it may be a feature.
I managed to have fun on Thursday, but there were challenges. I've spent some time trying to figure out what parts of that were caused by a Problem Player, and which parts may've been the system.
Without further weasel words, here's my thoughts:
-- The origin + 2 career + equipment + workspace takes too damn long. Chargen is part of the game, so is done in person. I've done some lonely fun building putting together playbooks for this game since Thursday, and wouldn't ever want to do this at the table.
-- The game suffers from a lack of Hx/strings/SOMETHING that binds the characters together.
-- While a space opera hack, there's no obvious support for magical characters: second foundationers, jedis, even Troi and Spock!
-- I really like that the table decides what size ship to have.
-- Given that I want fewer, and more meaningful, decisions during chargen, I'd probably be happier with Star Wars World. Add a playbook or two to cover magic types who aren't space wizards, maybe another type of shipboard officer, and we could be in business.
-- Playbooks would also have made it easier for us to know what was up with the problem player: he wanted to be an asskicker, and that wasn't apparent to us until he flame throwered a prisoner. In SWW, he could have picked up the Trooper and it would be clear what he wants. In Dungeon World, the fighter. In Apocalypse World, the gunlugger.
-- We spent an hour and a half on chargen -- of our 3 hour game time -- and weren't finished. We didn't get to Factions basically at all.
Basically, all other children of the apocalypse have virtues that I'm not seeing here. I think the attempt to be broad in scope is a noble one, but this isn't the game for me.
And, let me be clear, this may be the game for you. Its a bit more complicated than most PbtA, and while for me that's a bug, for you it may be a feature.
Thursday, October 15, 2015
Reading a science fiction book, which takes place on a colony on Venus.
Reading a science fiction book, which takes place on a colony on Venus. The book is called Containment. I do not recommend it.
--- spoilers to follow ---
First thought: Nah. They aren't on Venus. They are on Earth. Venus is a crazy place to build a colony.
40 pages in: They are on earth! You can't do EVAs on Venus!
60 pages in: Earth! Building on Venus continues to not make any sense. This is probably some sort of mad max future with better technology.
200 pages in: the Big reveal! They are ON EARTH. Earth is all messed up, with radiation and high temperatures. There's no oil, and there are warlords battling over land. You never saw that coming, did you audience? I pulled one over on you!
250 pages: Why did I finish this?
--- spoilers to follow ---
First thought: Nah. They aren't on Venus. They are on Earth. Venus is a crazy place to build a colony.
40 pages in: They are on earth! You can't do EVAs on Venus!
60 pages in: Earth! Building on Venus continues to not make any sense. This is probably some sort of mad max future with better technology.
200 pages in: the Big reveal! They are ON EARTH. Earth is all messed up, with radiation and high temperatures. There's no oil, and there are warlords battling over land. You never saw that coming, did you audience? I pulled one over on you!
250 pages: Why did I finish this?
Wednesday, October 14, 2015
Does anyone really believe Jon Snow is Eddard's son?
Does anyone really believe Jon Snow is Eddard's son?
I probably shouldn't just leave this here, but I'm going to.
I probably shouldn't just leave this here, but I'm going to.
It was pointed out -- by my wife -- that the reason we want government services isn't so that they'll be better --...
It was pointed out -- by my wife -- that the reason we want government services isn't so that they'll be better -- they often aren't -- but so we don't have to use our limited human time and attention on it.
My limited ability to make decisions is absolutely something I value.
My limited ability to make decisions is absolutely something I value.
Thursday, October 8, 2015
This is fantastic, and goes to about everything I care about.
This is fantastic, and goes to about everything I care about.
Originally shared by T. Franzke
The top answer here perfectly explains how DW works. How not making a GM move when needed is breaking the rules.
I love it.
http://rpg.stackexchange.com/questions/65809/how-to-ask-nicely-in-dungeon-world
Originally shared by T. Franzke
The top answer here perfectly explains how DW works. How not making a GM move when needed is breaking the rules.
I love it.
http://rpg.stackexchange.com/questions/65809/how-to-ask-nicely-in-dungeon-world
Wednesday, October 7, 2015
That realization that Star Wars, in its many incarnations, is old white men scrabbling for power, with PoC fighting...
That realization that Star Wars, in its many incarnations, is old white men scrabbling for power, with PoC fighting amongst themselves over which of two bad options to choose.
I hate that realization. Give me some more sword fights in space so I can forget it for the next month.
I hate that realization. Give me some more sword fights in space so I can forget it for the next month.
Tuesday, October 6, 2015
asking for a friend: In DnD (choose your variant, but say which) do the rules have a such thing as a hard move on a...
asking for a friend: In DnD (choose your variant, but say which) do the rules have a such thing as a hard move on a failure?
Sunday, October 4, 2015
We saw The Martian yesterday.
We saw The Martian yesterday. I think this is the second movie I've seen in a first-run theater this year. The first was Mad Max.
I got to see this one with my wife! That makes everything better. It was great fun: Matt Damon does a good Mark Watney. We saw it in 3d, for scheduling sake. This was our first 3d movie: I thought it was a distracting gimmick, my wife liked it.
I had a headache afterwards, almost assuredly caused by wearing 3d glasses over my glasses; the pupilary distance had to be messed up.
The bad science that annoyed me the most? Don't EVA without latching on! Do that and you're dead.
What annoyed her the most? He doesn't use square foot gardening, and grows in a field. That's just silly.
I got to see this one with my wife! That makes everything better. It was great fun: Matt Damon does a good Mark Watney. We saw it in 3d, for scheduling sake. This was our first 3d movie: I thought it was a distracting gimmick, my wife liked it.
I had a headache afterwards, almost assuredly caused by wearing 3d glasses over my glasses; the pupilary distance had to be messed up.
The bad science that annoyed me the most? Don't EVA without latching on! Do that and you're dead.
What annoyed her the most? He doesn't use square foot gardening, and grows in a field. That's just silly.
Friday, October 2, 2015
Star Wars Clone Wars Season 3: Episode 14 - Witches of the mist
Star Wars Clone Wars Season 3: Episode 14 - Witches of the mist,
Holy crap -- Dooku uses force lightning as a pedagogical tool. That's ridiculously evil.
Holy crap -- Dooku uses force lightning as a pedagogical tool. That's ridiculously evil.
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