According to 538 (http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/religion-and-education-explain-the-white-vote/), the best explanatory variables for how a white voter will vote are:
1. Education (more education, more Clinton)
2. Church Attendance (more Church, more Trump)
3. Trailing those two: urban versus rural. (more Urban density more Clinton). This last is most useful when the first two are middling -- ie, college no degree, church sometimes but not weekly. Otherwise, it mostly falls out.
That explains me, a white educated non-church attending city dweller.
But, here's what really gets me: Why is the Methodist finding it so hard to get church going whites to vote for her, while the fascist racist serial philanderer supposed billionaire braggart occasional rapist finds it so easy?
What's is up with white Christians?
[ And yeah, there's a standard answer of "they are misogynistic racists. That's too obvious, try a different way. ]
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White Christians, especially those that identify strongly with it, tend to also be socially conservative. Pro-life, uncomfortable with gay types, really uncomfortable with any blurring of the gender lines. Clinton is seen as "socially progressive" if for no other reason than being on the left, and at the least making statements that are seen as accepting of those things. Trump is seen as "conservative" for... some reason. Because he's on the right. Because he's /not/ inclusive in his language. It makes no matter that he is multi-divorced because that "doesn't count".
ReplyDeleteThat's my general theory on the matter at least. Also /insert flippant remark about misogyny...
There's a definite population of white puritan christians who think that justice is in the hands of God, but achievement is in the hands of Man. So it's hard to sell them on a message of "A lot of how you got where you are is luck, so you are beholden (if you are fortunate) to use your advantages to seek justice for those who have had less opportunities."
ReplyDeletePro-life voting is a big thing locally. A group of women from the local Catholic church hand out a Pro-life cheat sheet and the polls; outside the required distance, mind you. The sheet lists all the Pro-life candidates up for election, regardless of political persuasion.
ReplyDeleteAnd it works.
time to get the green card out of the cabinet. washingtonpost.com - Trump is headed for a win, says professor who has predicted 30 years of presidential outcomes correctly
ReplyDeleteTodd Sprang 13 questions for a half dozen races is the very definition of an overfit model. I cannot put stock in that.*
ReplyDelete*That's not to say Trump won't or can't win; it is to say this model is hogwash. We have science.
Yeah, I figure calling 8 races is actually pretty likely given the number of people who are guessing. 1:2^8 = 1:256. Someone's bound to ace those odds.
ReplyDeleteMatt Johnson Right. That she goes to church and he's divorced don't count. That the DNC was about god & soldiers, while the RNC was about hatred doesn't count. So, what does anymore?
ReplyDeleteTony Lower-Basch Its similar to the realization that if I were born in India I'd be Buddhist, rather than being raised christian. That these things are accidents. To not get that is missing a really important cognitive step in those teenage years.
Adam Day Where you at?
William Nichols central Pennsylvania. Just outside the metropolis (sarcasm) of Williamsport. My borough is generally Conservative, but passing out the cheat sheet certainly speaks a bit, I think, about how much research the locals do on their candidates.
ReplyDeleteDoes Trump claim a religion?
ReplyDeleteCultural Christians split from practicing Christians. If you go to church a lot, then you're more likely to be anti-Trump than if you go once in a while, but call yourself Christian.
ReplyDeleteMo Jave Yes, and it is a crazy pants one. Suuuuuper crazy pants christian.
ReplyDeleteWhich?
ReplyDeleteMo, he's espoused this particular brand of Christianity that's a little odd, based around Norman Vincent Peale's The Power of Positive Thinking. The fact that he doesn't do any drugs, drink, or even do caffeine, have something to do with this faith. I'm fuzzy on some of the details. I found this great article on it that I can't find now, but I did find this:
ReplyDeletereligionnews.com - 5 faith facts about Donald Trump: A Presbyterian who collects Bibles
He was under this crazy pants guy: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norman_Vincent_Peale
ReplyDeleteAlso remember that self-reported church attendance is massively over-reported. It's more than likely that the demographic you're speaking of isn't "white Christian church attendees" so much as "white people who identify as Christian despite not having any regular spiritual guidance."
ReplyDeleteCheck out episode 44 of the hidden brain podcast. It offers an interesting perspective.
ReplyDeleteKaren Steele !!!
ReplyDeleteDon't seem so super crazy pants... I mean Presbyterian with a nnew-age spiritual libertarian overlay.
ReplyDeleteIs it the no drinking.. smoking etc etc... That seems crazy?
Mo Jave My understanding is the doctrine includes that God benefits the good -- so if you ever lose, it is god punishing you and you are terrible.
ReplyDeleteYeah, that's what I was covering under the new age spiritual libertarianism. Still (sadly) is not so uncommon. Framing it in religion would be odd maybe, but also maybe more honest.
ReplyDeleteYeah. Peal wrote The Power of Positive Thinking. Sound like another book?
ReplyDelete