Electoral predictions:
1. HRC will win the election with somewhere between 300 and 400 electoral votes. She will win the popular vote by over a million votes. The democratic party will win the senate, but not the House.
2. Donald Trump will concede. He will blame someone, probably the electorate. In no instance does he accept the blame. Because he is a shitty leader.
3. He will continue to be a thorn in the side of our government.
4. We will have a full supreme court by March.
I could be wrong about any of these things. Ask, and I shall explain why I believe these things.
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Interested in your reasoning on 4, vis-a-vis a filibuster.
ReplyDeleteBrandes Stoddard Sure!
ReplyDeleteWe'll have the senate. The first thing the senate does is decide on the rules of the senate -- which includes whether or not the fillibuster is OK, and whether it is a procedural or real filibuster.
My expectation is that either the Senate's new rules will only include non-procedural filibuster, or there will be a previous agreement with the republican leadership -- such as it is -- to put someone like Garland on the court. Of course, I really dislike the procedural filibuster and think it is bad for democracy.
I don't expect it to be Garland, though.
Yeah, I'm down with those. Trump will get tired of being the sore loser and will hopefully move on.
ReplyDeleteIn principle I don't like changing the rules when a political body changes control. In this case, we can't live with 8 more years of dogged obstructionism, so I might make an exception.
ReplyDeleteI mean, the Senate decides on its rules every two years. More or less. The House absolutely does.
ReplyDeleteI dislike the procedural filibuster in part because it makes shitty drama. If you want to filibuster, great! Stand in front of Congress and read the phone book, or whatever. Don't just say "yep, i plan to filibuster". That's bad drama.
I disagree on the concession speech though. He will come up, blame everyone but himself and stalk off.
ReplyDeleteShervyn von Hoerl blaming everyone sounds like a concession to me. "You didn't vote for me. You assholes". That sounds semantically equivalent to "I lost the election".
ReplyDeleteIt sounds like you think it is different. Can you tell me why?
I'm not saying he will say "I lost because you assholes didn't vote for me". I am saying he will say things like "I won this election, but the machines were rigged and the vote counters were corrupt so it only looks like I lost this election. But they stole it from me."
ReplyDeleteShervyn von Hoerl I just hope that other people are as tired of his shtick as I am.
ReplyDeleteAh. No, he won't.
ReplyDeleteBecause the secret service won't let him.
William Nichols I hope you're right.
ReplyDeleteWilliam, why do you believe the secret service won't let him?
ReplyDeleteAlso, on point 4, McCain has been talking like they may just let all the Supreme Court vacancies continue to toll up while Hillary's president.
ReplyDeleteRobert Bohl Their first job is the protection of the constitution and the laws, from all enemies foreign and domestic. At the point trump loses the election he ceases to be someone they care about. It then becomes their unwritten duty to ensure the safe and transparent transfer of power.
ReplyDeleteThis is the same organization which, according to rumor, keeps a sniper on the outgoing president on Jan 20.
As for McCain and the Court: Only if the republicans keep the Senate, which is looking unlikely. The first thing the Senate does is decide on the rules for the Senate, and I don't think the procedural filibuster is going to survive. If it does, it'll be with an agreement that nominations go through.
ReplyDeleteWhich it shouldn't: it is a blight on democracy.