No context. How can I have a preference without context? Each would do something different that would affect play outcome, and preference would suit design goals/suitable positive play outcome. I don't know if I am a player, GM or designer, don't know who a stranger would be in context, if the game is collaborative or antagonistic, how it's themed or world-built, don't know how xp scales or what it's used for.
There is literally no meaningful answer I can give.
I agree with Mo, without some basis to judge on, you are just making a random selection. You might as well have said "Choose A B or C, you have no information on what they represent, not even the context of what you are choosing them in".
No, not really. That provides only enough context that says B and C are functionally equivalent and can not be distinguished.
(If this is a vote that's meant to reveal how people see their relationship with others or altruism, then positing an unknown fictional world is probably a skewed way to go about it.)
(of course it's skewed. It's in reference to a thing that came up on Tony Lower-Basch G+ yesterday, and I posit that how it is shown matters to the outcome. )
(All of the above. How we present information matters as much as what the information is to how we decide to move forward. Our decision making and how we understand a game is predicated on how the game is presented, not just on the underlying structure of the game. )
Mo Jave It's a logic puzzle. It's nothing to do with gaming as such. Bear in mind that other people are making the same choice as you, and that, all things being equal, one in three of those other people will choose each of the available options.
(William Nichols I agree with your premise, just not your test? Though that's probably doesn't matter much, as I'm not the thread owner.)
catty _big understood, I just don't think it's a particularly good logic puzzle. There is no outcome that carries value unless you didn't understand to start from that some people understand their need for context and some people don't.
There's two huge unknowns that make this unanswerable: First, "who decides the second half of A?" Second. "how many strangers are there, and who decides which stranger gets the +1 for B?"
The whole "who decides the second half of A" does seem like an attempt to get around the previous answer of " 'who knows?' means 'you have no information.'" I sympathize, but maybe 'no information' means no information.
Without context, I can explain my answer: A: I don't know if the strangers are allies, neutral, or adversaries, and therefore I don't know if I am helping or hurting, and by how much.
B: The known net gain is +2 for my side, even if, in the worst case scenario, the stranger is an adversary. At best, it's a +4 for our side if the stranger is an ally.
C: Less fun for the stranger, no matter which side they are on. Even if they're an adversary, if we're playing a game (XP implies a game), the goal is for everyone to have fun.
The way the poll is set up suggests that the superset of the first option is to be given equal weight to the other two, and therefore I’m going to proceed on the assumption that each of the four subordinates - stranger gets 0XP, stranger gets 1XP, stranger gets 2XP and stranger gets 3XP - should be treated as representing a twelfth of the choices rather than a third. Accordingly, I’m going to call the three options XP1a-XP1d, XP2 and XP3. In addition, I’m going to assume that for every instance of a stranger being awarded XP, there’s a 1/3 probability that the option selected will be either XP1a-d, XP2 or XP3.
For every unit of game time (GT), one would accrue nXP (where n represents the XP attaching to either XP1a-d, XP2 or XP3) + the XP attaching to whatever you receive as a result of the stranger’s choice of options (the range of the latter also being XP1a-XP3).
Based on the above, for every 9GT there’s an equal chance one would accrue one of the following amounts of XP (assuming the value for X1a-d is the average of 0-3, i.e. 1.5): 1.(2XP + 0-3XP) + (2XP + 0-3XP) = 7XP 2. (2XP + 0-3XP) + (3XP + 1XP) = 7.5XP 3. (2XP + 0-3XP)) + (3XP + 0XP) = 6.5XP 4. (3XP + 1XP) + (2XP + 0-3XP) = 7.5XP 5. (3XP + 1XP) + (3XP + 1XP) = 8XP 6. (3XP + 1XP) + (3XP + 0XP) = 7XP 7. (3XP + 0XP) + (3XP + 0-3XP) = 7.5XP 8. (3XP) + 0XP)) + (3XP) + (1XP) = 7XP 9. (3XP) + 0XP)) + (3XP) + (0XP) = 6XP
If we further take as the representative value for each option the average of the three possible instances of that option, then we arrive at the following: Option A: 7XP Option B: 7.5XP Option C: 6.83XP
So we can see that Option B yields us the most XP, but by quite a slim margin.
William Nichols: given that you've said that "who knows" could mean +/- arbitrary large values, and that A is the only time you've used the plural "strangers", option A is basically writing a blank cheque to the "decider" to arbitrarily set all other players XP values.
If I'm writing someone a blank cheque, the most important questions are "who?" and "do I trust them?"
Jonathan Beverley It is, and thus A would pip B by a potentially infinite margin. I defined 'who knows' in my calculations as ranging in value from the lowest to the highest of the numbers used in the poll overall, as otherwise it's (literally) incalculable.
I picked option C. Reason: I cannot choose option A, because it has the potential for unlimited badness. Reason: I won't choose option B, because it has the potential for large unknown ramifications, including but not limited to immediate cessation of the game. Risk is too great.
Don't care about strangers getting XP if they are unknown to me. My assumption is that we are neither adversaries or friends. In which case, I don't want to harm them. A is actually the only acceptable choice, as it divorces what I get from what they get, which is, and with limited knowledge should be, unknowable.
William Nichols Under what circumstances would strangers (NPCs?) be awarded XP? It could be that this happens regularly in games I don't normally play, but I haven't come across such a scenario personally.
William Nichols Sorry, another assumption I made was that for every instance of oneself being awarded XP a stranger would be awarded it also, whereas in fact, for every GT one could be awarded potentially infinite amounts of XP (or none at all) and the stranger (or strangers: another thing we don't know is how many of them there will be at any given point in the game) likewise. I want MOAR information!!!
In answer to your question, William, I would value a stranger getting an XP at roughly the same as my getting 2 XPs ... because they get to enjoy receiving it, and I get to enjoy that they received it.
This does not optimize for total XPs in the system. Ah well!
Is this not classic Prisoner's Dilemma with a blind option added? Cooperation, if adopted by all, is the best outcome, especially if it's iterated in the sense that "XP" implies, so there's learning about strategies. I chose "B".
Does the 'who knows' mean the stranger might get 0 or >2? I'm just checking my assumptions before I answer.
ReplyDelete^ As usual, I'm with her.
ReplyDeleteOr negative. You have no information.
ReplyDeleteI have no idea what these mean.
ReplyDeleteWhat's the problem, Mo Jave?
ReplyDeleteNo context. How can I have a preference without context? Each would do something different that would affect play outcome, and preference would suit design goals/suitable positive play outcome. I don't know if I am a player, GM or designer, don't know who a stranger would be in context, if the game is collaborative or antagonistic, how it's themed or world-built, don't know how xp scales or what it's used for.
ReplyDeleteThere is literally no meaningful answer I can give.
I agree with Mo, without some basis to judge on, you are just making a random selection. You might as well have said "Choose A B or C, you have no information on what they represent, not even the context of what you are choosing them in".
ReplyDeleteMo Jave Your objective is to get as much XP as you can. Good enough?
ReplyDeleteNo, not really. That provides only enough context that says B and C are functionally equivalent and can not be distinguished.
ReplyDelete(If this is a vote that's meant to reveal how people see their relationship with others or altruism, then positing an unknown fictional world is probably a skewed way to go about it.)
(of course it's skewed. It's in reference to a thing that came up on Tony Lower-Basch G+ yesterday, and I posit that how it is shown matters to the outcome. )
ReplyDelete(How what is shown? The wording of the rule? The inclusion of context? I don't follow Tony so don't know what the OP was.)
ReplyDelete(All of the above. How we present information matters as much as what the information is to how we decide to move forward. Our decision making and how we understand a game is predicated on how the game is presented, not just on the underlying structure of the game. )
ReplyDeleteMo Jave It's a logic puzzle. It's nothing to do with gaming as such. Bear in mind that other people are making the same choice as you, and that, all things being equal, one in three of those other people will choose each of the available options.
ReplyDeleteCan you unpack that, catty _big?
ReplyDeleteWilliam Nichols I assume that there is a reason that "random XP for me and 3 XP for a stranger" isn't on there?
ReplyDeleteis the stranger another player in the same game?
ReplyDeletelike i don't even know what it means to give a random person on earth some XP so i hope so
ReplyDelete(William Nichols I agree with your premise, just not your test? Though that's probably doesn't matter much, as I'm not the thread owner.)
ReplyDeletecatty _big understood, I just don't think it's a particularly good logic puzzle. There is no outcome that carries value unless you didn't understand to start from that some people understand their need for context and some people don't.
There's two huge unknowns that make this unanswerable:
ReplyDeleteFirst, "who decides the second half of A?"
Second. "how many strangers are there, and who decides which stranger gets the +1 for B?"
Derrick Sanders That's an interesting one! I'm not sure it'd hit the same goal, but it is interessting.
ReplyDeleteJonathan Beverley Can you unpack why that matters?
ReplyDeleteThe whole "who decides the second half of A" does seem like an attempt to get around the previous answer of " 'who knows?' means 'you have no information.'" I sympathize, but maybe 'no information' means no information.
ReplyDeleteWilliam Nichols I'll try. Give me a few minutes to do the calculations.
ReplyDeleteYeah, game theory is nothing without it's context.
ReplyDeleteWithout context, I can explain my answer:
ReplyDeleteA: I don't know if the strangers are allies, neutral, or adversaries, and therefore I don't know if I am helping or hurting, and by how much.
B: The known net gain is +2 for my side, even if, in the worst case scenario, the stranger is an adversary. At best, it's a +4 for our side if the stranger is an ally.
C: Less fun for the stranger, no matter which side they are on. Even if they're an adversary, if we're playing a game (XP implies a game), the goal is for everyone to have fun.
The way the poll is set up suggests that the superset of the first option is to be given equal weight to the other two, and therefore I’m going to proceed on the assumption that each of the four subordinates - stranger gets 0XP, stranger gets 1XP, stranger gets 2XP and stranger gets 3XP - should be treated as representing a twelfth of the choices rather than a third. Accordingly, I’m going to call the three options XP1a-XP1d, XP2 and XP3. In addition, I’m going to assume that for every instance of a stranger being awarded XP, there’s a 1/3 probability that the option selected will be either XP1a-d, XP2 or XP3.
ReplyDeleteFor every unit of game time (GT), one would accrue nXP (where n represents the XP attaching to either XP1a-d, XP2 or XP3) + the XP attaching to whatever you receive as a result of the stranger’s choice of options (the range of the latter also being XP1a-XP3).
Based on the above, for every 9GT there’s an equal chance one would accrue one of the following amounts of XP (assuming the value for X1a-d is the average of 0-3, i.e. 1.5):
1.(2XP + 0-3XP) + (2XP + 0-3XP) = 7XP
2. (2XP + 0-3XP) + (3XP + 1XP) = 7.5XP
3. (2XP + 0-3XP)) + (3XP + 0XP) = 6.5XP
4. (3XP + 1XP) + (2XP + 0-3XP) = 7.5XP
5. (3XP + 1XP) + (3XP + 1XP) = 8XP
6. (3XP + 1XP) + (3XP + 0XP) = 7XP
7. (3XP + 0XP) + (3XP + 0-3XP) = 7.5XP
8. (3XP) + 0XP)) + (3XP) + (1XP) = 7XP
9. (3XP) + 0XP)) + (3XP) + (0XP) = 6XP
If we further take as the representative value for each option the average of the three possible instances of that option, then we arrive at the following:
Option A: 7XP
Option B: 7.5XP
Option C: 6.83XP
So we can see that Option B yields us the most XP, but by quite a slim margin.
That's enough maths for one day :p
Wow. People are really wrestling with the "no information" bit.
ReplyDeleteWilliam Nichols: given that you've said that "who knows" could mean +/- arbitrary large values, and that A is the only time you've used the plural "strangers", option A is basically writing a blank cheque to the "decider" to arbitrarily set all other players XP values.
ReplyDeleteIf I'm writing someone a blank cheque, the most important questions are "who?" and "do I trust them?"
Jonathan Beverley It is, and thus A would pip B by a potentially infinite margin. I defined 'who knows' in my calculations as ranging in value from the lowest to the highest of the numbers used in the poll overall, as otherwise it's (literally) incalculable.
ReplyDeletecatty _big I assume your math is right. And my follow-up is: where did you get those assumptions?
ReplyDeleteAnd a follow-up for everyone: To what extent does strangers getting XP matter to you? Why?
ReplyDeleteWilliam Nichols They're reasonable ones given the lack of additional information, which I guess is Mo Jave's point.
ReplyDeleteI picked option C.
ReplyDeleteReason: I cannot choose option A, because it has the potential for unlimited badness.
Reason: I won't choose option B, because it has the potential for large unknown ramifications, including but not limited to immediate cessation of the game. Risk is too great.
Don't care about strangers getting XP if they are unknown to me. My assumption is that we are neither adversaries or friends. In which case, I don't want to harm them. A is actually the only acceptable choice, as it divorces what I get from what they get, which is, and with limited knowledge should be, unknowable.
ReplyDeleteWilliam Nichols Under what circumstances would strangers (NPCs?) be awarded XP? It could be that this happens regularly in games I don't normally play, but I haven't come across such a scenario personally.
ReplyDeleteTony Lower-Basch It would seem people don't like to make uninformed choices or something.
ReplyDeleteWilliam Nichols Not at all, or extremely much, but that depends on factors not discussed in the question so I still view it as a coin flip.
William Nichols Sorry, another assumption I made was that for every instance of oneself being awarded XP a stranger would be awarded it also, whereas in fact, for every GT one could be awarded potentially infinite amounts of XP (or none at all) and the stranger (or strangers: another thing we don't know is how many of them there will be at any given point in the game) likewise. I want MOAR information!!!
ReplyDeleteThis is like watching people watching an Ionesco play.
ReplyDeleteIn answer to your question, William, I would value a stranger getting an XP at roughly the same as my getting 2 XPs ... because they get to enjoy receiving it, and I get to enjoy that they received it.
ReplyDeleteThis does not optimize for total XPs in the system. Ah well!
Is this not classic Prisoner's Dilemma with a blind option added? Cooperation, if adopted by all, is the best outcome, especially if it's iterated in the sense that "XP" implies, so there's learning about strategies. I chose "B".
ReplyDelete